Brace Yourself for the Next Banking Crash -- It's Coming Soon
Bank crashes are no accident. They are systemic. They are inherent. It’s the culture. Unless this culture of cheating is changed, crashes will happen again.
View ArticleWhat a Caveman Can Teach You About Strategy
Sometimes, to understand competiton, you have first to understand yourself.
View ArticleIs Your Company Heading For a Cuban Missile Crisis? Steps to Make Sure Big...
The rise of big data rests on the assumption that having more data gives organizations better control and the ability to avoid nasty surprises. It doesn’t. To understand why, consider the Cuba missile...
View ArticleCommodity Prices: Why Technology and the Price Mechanism will Prove the...
Pessimists have been predicting commodity scarcity for 200 years. They're wrong, here is why.
View ArticleGlobal Trends Anyone? Why the Forecasters So Often Get It Wrong
Global Trends 2030, the latest long-term forecast from the National Intelligence Council (NIC) – the strategy arm of the US intelligence community - is out. So what does it say and why should you care?...
View ArticleWait! Three Questions CEOs Should Ask When Surprise Hits
Despite tremendous developments in business strategy over the last fifty years, businesses and governments keep being disrupted by events that they might have seen coming, butdidn't. In other words,...
View ArticleThree Reasons Why Big Data Doesn't Make You Smarter -- Lessons From the World...
The apostles of big data preach that Big Data will make organizations smarter. It won't, because much quantifiable data is not strategically useful and a lot of the information which is strategically...
View ArticleSnowden And The Challenge Of Intelligence: The Practical Case Against The...
Edward Snowden’s recent revelations of the extent of surveillance activity by the NSA has sparked a heated debate between security experts and civil liberties advocates.That debate, however, masks...
View ArticleGeopolitics, Investing, and the Little Book of Psychic Cold Reading
Rule Number One of Investing is “Don’t lose money,” and the beginning of wisdom in geopolitics is avoid needless errors. One easy way to do that is a quick read of The Handbook of Psychic Cold Reading,...
View Article1962, The U2, and You: A Risk Management Lesson from the Cold War
The Cuban Missile Crisis is seen as a classic case of crisis management. Yet, by looking at the origin of the crisis, one can learn valuable lessons on risk management.
View ArticleAre You Near Your Altamont Moment? How Catastrophic Surprises Transform...
Sometimes, it takes a catastrophic event for organizations and people to realize that though their world has changed, they have not. Don't wait for it.
View ArticleChess, Centaurs And Your Future As An Investor In An Age Of Machine Intelligence
Machine reading and artificial intelligence is becoming a fact of life in finance. As an investor, will you be a victim or will you take advantage of it?
View ArticleAvoid Nasty Surprises: Three Models To Integrate Country Behavior To Your...
An obsession with finding rational explanations - however far-fetched - for a state’s actions may lead us to ignore important emotional motivations, and result in miscalculation or outright surprise.
View ArticleIn Praise Of Poets: Three Practical Reasons To Insist On Forecasts Without...
While the quest to quantify the unquantifiable is spreading like cancer in business, economics and public policy, you should sometimes insist on qualitative, i.e. non-numerical forecasts about the future
View ArticleWithout An Opinion, You're Just Another Person With Data
If you think Big Data will make you smarter, and that having an opinion is a bad idea when considering an important decision, think again.
View ArticleDo You Have A Digital Strategy? Kodak Had One Too
So you have a digital strategy. Kodak did too, and that didn't prevent the Rochester film giant from disappearing. There are lessons to be learned by looking more closely to the story.
View ArticleThe Cargo Cult Of Digital Transformation
Hiring hundreds, or even thousands of software engineers, doesn't make you a software company, because that doesn't make you change the mental model of the organization. It will take more for...
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